With two sets of matches now played by each team, the 2026 World Cup is really starting to take shape. It has been a tournament full of goals where goalkeepers have struggled and stars have shone. We are now starting to see which nations are true contenders in this competition. With round two completed, here are the top five teams most likely to win the tournament.
Number 1 – France
Kylian Mbappe has set this tournament alight once again, with his brace against Iraq making it four goals in two games for France’s star man. The 2022 runners up may have fallen to two of the other top contenders, Spain and Argentina, in each of their last two tournaments, but the 2026 version of Les Bleus seems to have a much more terrifying attack. Mbappe speaks for himself, but he has Michael Olise alongside him, who has established himself as one of the best players in the world this season. Along with that, France have the reigning Ballon d’Or winner in their front line, with Ousmane Dembele netting his first World Cup goal against Iraq, which gave Olise his second assist of the game, and third of the tournament already. France came into this competition with by far the best attack on paper, but that doesn’t always result in success on the pitch. In this case, however, it does, with the three stars aforementioned all performing at a high level to start the tournament. With a backline made up of three title winners from three different leagues in Kounde (Barcelona), Upemecano (Bayern Munich), and Saliba (Arsenal), as well as a Europa League winner at left back in Digne (Aston Villa), finding a flaw in this team becomes very difficult, even if you could nitpick at their midfield not being as star-studded as other nations.
Number 2 – Argentina
The reigning world champions are the number one ranked team in the world, and for good reason. Argentina have kept the core of the team that put them on top of the world in Qatar 2022, taking 17 players from that tournament to this one. A lot of those players may have aged for the worse since then (granted, some have aged for the better), but when they put the famous blue and white striped shirt on, a switch flicks. Take Alexis Mac Allister and Christian Romero, disappointing seasons for their club but two excellent performances to start the competition, and those are just two examples. Of course, the switch that flicks for these players can easily be attributed to Lionel Messi. In 2022, they gave everything to ensure he won a World Cup, and now they’re doing everything to try and help him go back to back. Messi himself has proven he is still one of, if not the best player in the world, with two more goals against Austria. Messi may not have the conditioning to play 90 intense minutes anymore but he doesn’t need to, and has never really had to. He often assesses the game from afar, conserving his energy, before taking over when the ball is at his feet. At 39, he is still unstoppable. Outside of Messi, however, Argentina have kept two clean sheets to start their tournament, an underrated aspect of their electric start. While the opposition hasn’t exactly been elite, they are the only top side to not concede a goal while winning both of their opening matches. In a tournament full of goals, being solid defensively will be vital in the latter stages. Their lack of firepower outside of their star man is what keeps them behind France on this list, however. Should there be a rematch of the 2022 final, one would think Mbappe’s teammates up front will contribute more than Messi’s.
Number Three – Spain
Despite a disappointing 0-0 against Cape Verde to start the tournament, Spain have shown they remain one of the best teams in the world as they easily dispatched of Saudi Arabia, coming out 4-0 winners. In terms of controlling a game with their midfield, there is no better team in the competition. Rodri and Pedri’s ability to keep play ticking, combined with Dani Olmo’s talent going forward gives them a formidable midfield. Averaging 70.5% possession, the third most so far in the competition, it’s a sign of things to come. Yet to concede a goal, the European champions also hold a solid backline, with 19-year-old Pau Cubarsi has building on his excellent title-winning season at Barcelona with two solid performances, albeit against far inferior opposition. On paper, Spain’s front three is by no means the strongest in the competition but Oyarzabal, who scored the goal to win Spain Euro 2024, has proven once again he will turn up for his nation on the big stage, with two goals and an assist against Saudi Arabia. Of course there is then Lamine Yamal, who netted his first World Cup goal in his first World Cup start at just 18. Similarly to Argentina, if Spain are going to win this competition, they will need their main man, in this case Yamal, to be at his best. It is not just Yamal’s ability on the ball that makes him so good, it is the attention he draws. He may have come on with less than 20 minutes to go in Spain’s 0-0 draw with Cape Verde, but it was evident straight away the difference he makes with how the opposition address his presence, and that was in full evidence in the 4-0 drubbing of Saudi Arabia. Yamal played just 45 minutes, being taken off at half time with Spain leading 3-0.
Number Four – England
Having arguably the toughest opening game of the big nations, certainly the European ones, England dismantled Croatia 4-2 with an excellent second half performance. While it was a nervy first half for the Three Lions, a second half onslaught of high intensity showed the potential of this team at full strength. Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane started the tournament in excellent fashion against Croatia, which the team will need to continue if they have any chance of winning the competition. Defensively, for a Thomas Tuchel side, England looked surprisingly vulnerable in the first half of their opening game, something they will certainly look to correct, and Tuchel’s tournament pedigree has shown that his team will more than likely improve in that manner. While they kept a clean sheet in their second match, that disappointing 0-0 against Ghana has supressed some positive overreactions from the first game while enhancing negative ones, in true English fashion. England do struggle to break down low blocks, there is no doubt about that, but going forward against teams that want to go toe to toe with them, there aren’t many better teams in the tournament than Tuchel’s side. Given the history of heartbreak with England in major tournaments, it’s easy to overreact from the Ghana result, but the Three Lions are unlikely to face such a physical team that will set up with that low a defensive block again. This team will thrive in the knockouts when teams can’t just play for draws and will be forced to come out of their shell. No need to panic for Thomas Tuchel, England are still a major contender.
Number Five – Netherlands
The Netherlands came up against a strong Japan team in their tournament opener, being pegged back twice in a 2-2 draw, but bounced back with a 5-1 drubbing of Sweden. Ronald Koeman’s team may not be as star-studded on paper as the four teams listed above them, but the players they need to perform have so far turned up. Despite the three goals conceded, captain Virgil Van Dijk has been solid at the back and has a good partner in Tottenham’s new signing, Jan Paul van Hecke. Right back Denzel Dumfries was excellent with two assists against Sweden in a game where we saw the Dutch at their best. Cody Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville have both done very well in the opening two matches, proving to be one of the best winger duos in the tournament so far. Frenkie De Jong is also showing why he is maybe the most underrated midfielder in the world, dictating the game at his own will, showing how vital a player he will be when the Netherlands are needing to control a game later on in the tournament. The Netherlands have a heartbreaking history in this competition, reaching five semi-finals, losing two of them on penalties, and winning the other three, only to fall short in all three finals they have taken part in, with two of those losses coming in extra time. A stat to keep an eye on with this team is that, despite having never won the competition, the last time the Netherlands lost a World Cup match in 90 minutes was in 2006 in the infamous ‘Battle of Nuremberg’ match against Portugal. This team will be very hard to beat in this competition, and even if they don’t win the whole thing, that stat could easily stay intact once this tournament has concluded.