The Los Angeles Rams will travel to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship in a battle between LA’s number one scoring offense and Seattle’s number one scoring defense. This will be the first time the Seahawks have appeared in the NFC Championship since the 2014/15 season, where they defeated the Green Bay Packers at home 28-22. For the Rams, this is their third NFC Championship appearance in eight seasons as they hunt for a second Super Bowl title in five years in the Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford era. These two teams gave us the game of the year in Week 16, with the Seahawks scoring the first ever game-winning two point conversion in overtime, to win 38-37. That victory is the reason this game is in Seattle instead of Los Angeles and, as we saw against the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round, Seattle’s home crowd, known as the 12s, will play a huge factor in this matchup.
The Seahawks are coming off of a huge 41-6 victory against another NFC West foe, the San Francisco 49ers. Along with that, they played their game against the 49ers on Saturday, whereas the Rams’ gruelling 20-17 overtime victory in Chicago against the Bears came on Sunday. Given the travel, or lack thereof for Seattle, the extra day of rest, the fact that their game was practically over midway through the 3rd quarter, and the bye week before the divisional round, the Seahawks come into this game very well rested compared to the Rams.
However, McVay certainly won’t look for excuses and will ensure his team is fully prepared as they get ready to face a team he is 12-7 against in his career, including a playoff win in Seattle from the 2020/21 season, where, crucially, no fans were in attendance. Of course, Seattle’s head coach, Mike Macdonald is only in his second year with the Seahawks, so has faced McVay just the four times. The pair are 2-2 against each other as head coaches, with each game ending by a one score margin, and two of the matchups going to overtime, including the aforementioned 38-37 thriller in Week 16 of this season.
McVay’s Offense VS Macdonald’s Defense
The way that Mike Macdonald has revolutionised the defensive side of the ball to turn his team into a contender in his second year with them feels similar to Sean McVay’s start as head coach of the Rams. Of course, McVay did this on the offensive side of the ball, when he led his team to Super Bowl LIII in his second season. In 2025, LA’s head coach led the highest scoring offense in the NFL, with Macdonald’s defense in Seattle giving up the fewest points of any team in the regular season.
A big criticism of McVay’s offense in their win over the Bears, from McVay himself as well as the media, was the lack of run plays called, particularly in the first half, and establishing a run game against the Seahawks will be incredibly challenging. Seattle had the third best rushing defense in the regular season from a yards point of view. Along with that, in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, Seattle’s opponents averaged -0.206 EPA per rush, giving the Seahawks by far the best run defense in terms of EPA per play in 2025, and also the best from any team over the past five seasons. However, this is not to say that LA won’t have success against the Seahawks on the ground. In the first meeting between these two teams this season, Kyren Williams averaged 7.6 yards per carry, and even if you take away his longest run of 34 yards, he still averaged over five yards per attempt.
We have seen the Seahawks limit the Rams’ rushing attack, though. In Week 16, Williams and fellow running back, Blake Corum, averaged just 3.19 yards per attempt on the ground combined. That lack of success likely played on McVay’s mind when calling three straight pass plays at a time when his team led 30-22 with eight minutes left in the game. Of course, it’s not as if Matthew Stafford struggled without an elite running game in that matchup. The 37-year-old quarterback threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns in his best game of the season. However, while the Rams weren’t as efficient on the ground in Week 16 as they were in the first matchup between these teams, McVay did stick with the ground game for most of the night, particularly when the Rams were in control. The Rams love to use 13 personnel (1 running back, 3 tight ends) and the Week 16 game saw them line up with this set on over 61% of their plays. However, when the game was tied at 30-30 in the 4th quarter, McVay’s offense was only in the 13 personnel grouping on five out of 16 plays. In overtime, though, his team used 13 personnel on seven out of the eight plays on the game winning drive. Given the Rams scored 37 points that night, and none in the 4th quarter when the game was tied at 30-30, they clearly had success with the three tight end looks.
In the passing game this season, LA has been strong, with an average of 0.235 EPA per play. The Rams went with a lot of 11 personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end) in the divisional round against the Bear, going away from their favoured 13 personnel. Given the success of the three tight ends against the Seahawks in Week 16, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lean on this set in the NFC Championship. However, it may not be as high as 61% like it was last time these teams met. Davante Adams, LA’s second option at wide receiver, missed that game, so with him back, 11 personnel may be more common given the Rams rarely run two tight end looks.
The advantage of running 13 personnel as the Rams is that, usually, a team has to match this personnel with a heavier personnel on defense, i.e. more linebackers. Given the Rams’ tight ends are all more than capable receivers, and they possess one of the league’s best wide receivers in Puka Nacua, they are able to pass out of this personnel a lot, doing so over 44% of the time in Week 16. However, unlike most defenses, the Seahawks play to their own tune, not the opposing offense’s. Throughout the regular season, Seattle played a nickel defense, meaning five defensive backs, at a rate of 77%, the second highest in the NFL. A nickel defense is better against the pass, so theoretically weaker against the run. However, rookie safety Nick Emmanwori has transformed Mike Macdonald’s defense with his versatility. Emmanwori’s athletic ability allows him to play as a linebacker and a safety, depdnding on the look of the offense. Combine this with a well coached, disciplined defense, and the Seahawks can play nickel at a high rate, no matter what look they get.
A key point on Sunday night will be to see if McVay can take advantage of the fact that Macdonald’s defense does not match offensive personnel. The Seahawks play how they want to on defense, not how they’re supposed to. It has worked to great success this season, but the Rams have a chance to punish them in 13 personnel if they execute to a high standard. If McVay is able to get mismatches in the run and passing game through the mismatch in personnel, the Rams may have a lot of success offensively.
Sam Darnold VS The Rams’ Defense
Sam Darnold is one of the best stories of this season. While 2024 was his breakout year with the Minnesota Vikings, after he failed to live up to the hype of being the 3rd overall pick in his first six seasons, 2025 has seen him take a step up in big moments. He has won his first playoff game this year, although given the dominance of the Seahawks against the 49ers, a lot of quarterbacks would have won that game. However, Darnold also won the biggest regular season game of the season, against the Rams, leading a game winning drive in overtime, capped off by a two-point conversion which would eventually result in the Seahawks clinching the number one seed and hosting LA in this matchup rather than the other way round.
But, while Darnold did step up his game late in the 4th quarter and in overtime in that Thursday Night Football classic, Chris Shula’s defensive unit had the better of him for the majority of that night, and has given Darnold plenty of issues in their three previous matchups. Darnold is 1-3 against this Rams unit over the past two seasons. In the 2024 season, he played fine in the regular season against the Rams, with two touchdowns and no turnovers in a loss. However, in the playoffs, he looked lost. Darnold had one interception but was also sacked nine times in a game where he didn’t know where to look and when. Against the Rams in Week 11, the former third overall pick had four interceptions, and then in Week 16 he had two. The Week 16 interceptions showed clear signs of Darnold looking lost in a big moment, misreading man coverage for what was actually zone coverage on the first pick, and throwing the ball right to a defensive lineman dropping into coverage on the second, clearly misreading where the pressure was coming from.
Of course, Darnold stepped up big time to lead his team to victory in overtime in Week 16, and he deserves enormous credit for that. However, unlike Stafford, we are yet to see him prove that he can produce four quarters of good play against his opponent on Sunday. In terms of LA’s defense themselves, they had an excellent outing against the Chicago Bears in the divisional round. Despite giving up a game tying 4th down miracle play with less than 20 seconds left, they had three takeaways, multiple fourth down stops, and were excellent in short down and distance situations. One worry for the Rams in these playoffs is their pass rush. Despite a strong regular season in getting to the quarterback, in two playoff games, LA has only two sacks, and they go into this game against a solid offensive line, paired with elite offensive weapons such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will punish teams if Darnold is given time to throw. In addition to that, LA’s secondary has been susceptible at times this season, giving up the third most air yards in the regular season. The game against the Panthers was a bad one for Shula’s group. Against the Bears, though, the secondary won the Rams the game, and given Chicago’s offensive line is one of the best in the NFL, it would not be a surprise to see this pass rush bounce back from a zero sack game in the divisional round.
Seattle’s major flaw this season has been turnovers. Only one team gave the ball away more in the regular season, and they lost more fumbles than any other team. The positive is that the Seahawks have gone two games in a row without a turnover, and those were two crucial matchups, both against the 49ers, with the first deciding the number one seed, and the second being the divisional round game. However, in their two games against LA this season, Seattle has seven turnovers. That has to change on Sunday.
Special Teams
A quick mention to special teams because it’s one of the main reasons the Seahawks are hosting this game and not the Rams. A Rashid Shaheed punt return touchdown flipped the Week 16 game, and LA’s kicker Harrison Mevis missed a kick to make it 33-30 late in the 4th quarter. Two days after that loss, the Rams fired special teams coordinator, Chase Blackburn, given special teams had cost them previous games this season as well, such as against the Philadelphia Eagles. With new interim coordinator, Ben Kotwica, the Rams have avoided crucial mistakes. Since that miss in Seattle in December, Mevis has made every kick for his team, including the game winner in overtime against the Bears in the divisional round.
On Seattle’s side, Shaheed is their X-Factor in this game, showing it against the Rams with a punt return touchdown, and also on the opening kick-off in the divisional round, taking the ball 95 yards for a touchdown. In terms of the Seahawks’ kicker, Jason Myers is 41/48 this season on field goals, and is yet to miss an extra point. He did miss a 61-yard game-winning attempt against the Rams in Week 11, a kick that wasn’t even close, but also made a season-long 57-yarder that same game. Seattle will certainly trust their kicker as he has come through for them a lot this season, particularly when he went six for six in an 18-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts, including a game-winner from 56 yards away.
Prediction
These two teams are very evenly matched so there is little doubt that this game will be close. Sean McVay has been questionable with his play-calling in tight spots this season, and has said so himself. However, despite that, and despite the excellence of Macdonald’s defense, the fact that the Rams have been in control for seven and a half quarters against the Seahawks this season makes me lean their way. In addition to that, Matthew Stafford can be trusted in a big spot far more than Sam Darnold, despite Darnold’s Week 16 comeback. Los Angeles Rams 27-24 Seattle Seahawks.